The Tokyo Paralympic triathlon course as it was set up for the Tokyo Test event in 2019.

I am sure you all feel out of the loop on what is going on with the Tokyo Paralympic Games and the qualification. Well, I can’t tell you that I know for certain what all is going on because it is an ever changing situation that I don’t think anyone can fully predict. I do however want to be transparent and update all of those that support and follow my CDifferentwithAaron mission.

What I can tell you is that the pandemic has thrown the qualification process into the washing machine and spit it out like a Kleenex left in your blue jeans pocket. The qualification period for paratriathlon initially started in June of 2019 and was supposed to go for one year through June 2020 with the Paralympic Games to be held in August-September of 2020. The qualification period started off as normal but then hit a bump in the road at the Tokyo Test event at the Paralympic venue when the swim was cancelled due to poor water quality and the race became a duathlon (run-bike-run). Because it was changed to a duathlon, this also decreased its ranking point value by 1/3 and took it out of the selection criteria for the US Team.

Ben Collins and I with our new Seven Tandem all ready to race in 2019 at the PATCO Paratriathlon Championships before it was unexpectedly cancelled by the pandemic.

With respect to my own road, the Tokyo Test event was the first international event back from hip surgery. My world ranking was still very high from prior races before surgery but with time, old ranking points disappear. My guide Ben Collins and I were planning on racing a lot during the 2020 year. The next major point race in 2019 was at the very challenging World Championships course in Lausanne, Switzerland. We took 3rd there and gained valuable points. There were no other major races in 2019 and our goal was to return to racing at the 2020 PATCO Continental Championship in Sarasota as each continent has a championship and these races are worth high ranking points. Unfortunately, this PATCO race fell exactly on the weekend when everything in the United States shut down from the pandemic. We were all at the race venue ready to race when we received an email that all the permits were pulled and the county shut down the race. From this point forward the qualification period was frozen and the games later postponed by one year.

The problem with the timing of all of this is the fact that most all other continents had already had their championship within the qualification period and thus gained valuable ranking points which help athletes get into further races as well as gain country slots for their nation to the games. Over the last year there has yet to be an international World Triathlon race as the pandemic has raged out of control. In order to put on an international event each country needs to be able to travel to and participate at the event. With countries opening and closing to travel like a game of musical chairs its hard to say if and when we will be able to resume international competition.

The next event on the race calendar was the PATCO Continental Championship which was so elegantly rebranded and given the new name The America’s Championship scheduled for March 15, 2021. As mentioned in the opening paragraph the qualification is an ever changing circus show and this continental championship has since been cancelled due to the continued pandemic spread and travel restrictions limiting other countries in the region such as Brazil from traveling to the event.

This event was supposed to serve as one of the primary selection races for the United States team as other events such as the Tokyo Test event were knocked out of the criteria by the cancelled swim. Without having this event , it also means that if any other further events take place internationally between May and July, US athletes may not be able to get on the start list because they are missing results from their continental championships. I’m not sure how much of my rambling explanation above you are understanding, but basically put in very easy to understand terms, we have a mess on our hands.

None of us, including governing body officials, athletes or coaches really know what is going to happen or who will all get there but as of now the Tokyo Paralympic organizers and the International Paralympic Committee (IPC) say that the games will go on. As mentioned above, I don’t know for sure if the games will in fact take place, but I always have to give my two cents into everything. Below is my own prediction of what may happen and how athletes will get selected.

Image with the quote, “ The truth is you don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow. Life is a crazy ride and nothing is guaranteed.” in bold text.

My hunch is that the pandemic will continue getting better but will not be anywhere near contained come May when some of the international events are now set to resume and therefore I am going to predict that there will be no further international paratriathlon events in the 2021 calendar other than quite possibly the 2021 Paralympic Games. If this happens there is no possible way that they can take the current Paralympic rankings to determine qualification as some continents haven’t had their continental championship and there would be categories that you would be leaving out many high medal potentials purely based on a technicality. This would give the other option of World Triathlon either totally not counting continental championships and using less race results in determining current rankings OR hand out country slots based purely on who they project gives each category the most qualify and diverse field. I have no idea what will happen or how the rest of the 2021 year will play out but this would be my guess just based upon what seems logical to me at this point.

If the above did take place, and country slots were awarded by invitation, it would be up to the country to decide who would get these slots. The country slot allocation process is the normal process by which slots are granted but the abnormal part about it is that the criteria by which these slots are allocated has all but been marked up, thrown out, marked up again and tossed once again. With no real races happening right now its very hard to choose how to best assign slots to athletes. Unless races resume prior to the games, many decisions must be made by disgression . I do not envy those making these decisions.

At this point, USA Triathlon has announced that the Sarasota race will still go on in March but as mentioned above this race will no longer be a continental championship and therefore will have no ranking points assigned. The race it seems may count in a discretionary means in team selection if applicable when selection time comes.

Despite so much unknown, guide Ben Collins and I continue to train and prepare to be on top of the podium at the Paralympic Games in Tokyo. In this picture we are next to each other in the pool where we were practicing some tethered swimming.

Hopefully this gives those of you reading some idea on what has been going on and may happen in the next few months. The above scenario I have thrown out there is totally an educated guess and has no solid evidence on how racing will or will not take place in 2021. My guide and I continue training and preparing to be ready for the call of duty when that day may come.. As athlete’s, we just want the opportunity to compete as that is what we love and enjoy. We hope competition comes back soon but we also want to do it safely.

My Best Guess On The Tokyo Paralympics?